OCEDEconomicWorkbookThe United States is warned that interest rate hikes prior to 2011 could spell doom for any hope of a recovery in the economy.

OECD Cautions Against Fed Hikes Prior to 2011. The OECD upgraded its growth outlook its 30 member nations for the first time in two years, forecasting that growth will only collapse 4.1% in 2009, as compared to its March forecast of -4.3%. Despite this “optimism”, the OECD warned that the US and Japan should both keep rates on hold at least until 2011 and that the ECB should cut its target rate further. The key takeaways here are that governments have put a floor under the global economy and that the central banks need to keep that floor (low interest) rates in place longer than is priced (at least for the Fed).

For those of you who are not familiar with the OCED, here is a summary from their website

OECD brings together the governments of countries committed to democracy and the market economy from around the world to:

  • Support sustainable economic growth
  • Boost employment
  • Raise living standards
  • Maintain financial stability
  • Assist other countries’ economic development
  • Contribute to growth in world trade

The Organisation provides a setting where governments compare policy experiences, seek answers to common problems, identify good practice and coordinate domestic and international policies.